Here is my logical, rational and educated response
Tax cuts? Or cash payments?
After 5 consecutive cuts in the loosening of monetary policy, the 7% to 3.25% cash rate target has been deemed insufficient to combat the economic downturn and many econometric models reveal that without the stimulus package Australia may be headed in the footsteps of most of their trading partners.
-$4.8 billion for an immediate down payment on long-term pension reform
-$3.9 billion in support payments for low and middle-income families
-$1.5 billion investment to help first-home buyers buy a home
-$187 million to create 56,000 new training places in 2008-09
(ABOVE STATS FROM: NineMSN: Money, News & Analysis, Rudd unveils $10 billion stimulus package viewed 9th February. 2009, ..)
It took the Liberal party 10 years to pay off the $90Billion debt… how long will it take to pay off a $200Billion debt?
6/10 of Australia’s trading partners are in recession… Everyone thinks we are headed into a recession.
SO during this pessimistic time about future market conditions deteriorating, isn’t it rational that people will save and not spend? I spoke to some friends about it today and it seems as though a lot of people want to save as opposed to spend, but the objective here is short term expenditure-to inject billions of dollars into the economy and create a multiplier effect in order to combat the economic downturn which has been projected to add 1% to Australia’s Gross Domestic Product according to ANZ.
This boost in the economy is supposed to be stimulated by a huge increase private consumption resulting from higher levels of consumer and business confidence. WHY are people planning to save when it defeats the whole purpose of the stimulus package??!
So here is $950 with one catch… you repay the $200 Billion debt under the future steepy progressive taxation system over the next few decades.
Consider the effects of a tax cut to stimulate the economy in the short and the long term: the expansionary fiscal policy.
A tax cut occurs when the government implements an expansionary budgetary deficit or a smaller budgetary surplus relative to the previous year’s budget surplus. This was the case for Australia during 2005-2006 in comparison to 2004-2005.
A budget deficit is a situation where the “total value of government outlays exceeds the total value of its receipts for a period of time” (Morris, 2004, pg.294).
In the short run a tax cut will induce individuals to spend more relative to save due to the increase in their disposable income and hence purchasing power. The increase in total expenditure (private consumption and business investment) will increase planned expenditure- that is the amount that the household, private and government sector would like to spend on goods and services. Planned expenditure is dependent on the level of income because a higher level of income results in higher consumption levels, representing a part of planned expenditure.
Consumption increases by the marginal propensity to consume; “the increase in consumption resulting from a one-dollar increase in disposable income” (Mankiw, 2007, pg.560); multiplied by the change in taxes.
Additionally, for a given level of income (denoted as Y), planned expenditure is now higher. The overall effect on income of the decrease in tax can be illustrated by tax multiplier:
^y/^t = - MPC / 1- MPC
This shows the amount of income changes in response to a $1.00 change in taxes.
In connection, the tax multiplier in the Keynesian Cross indicates that the change in policy increases the level of income at any given interest rate by: ^T x MPC / 1 – MPC (Mankiw, 2007).
As a result the IS curve to shift to the right, as illustrated in the diagram below:
The shift in the IS curve to the right increases the level of national income from Y1 to Y2. This in turn increases the real interest rate from r1 to r2. Due to John Maynard Keynes notion of sticky wages, prices in the short term remain fixed, illustrated on the AD diagram, on point P2. Because the level of income has increased but the price level remains the same, the level of consumption is increased from y1 to y2.
Moreover, the increase in interest rates represents an increase in the cost of credit, which is unfavourable to investors. As a result, investment decreases.
In the long run however, prices can alter. The aggregate demand curve shifts to the right to AD2 due to the increase in expenditure. Additionally, the free forces of demand and supply interact until they equilibrate at point 5, at the natural rate. The interest rates are further increased to point r3 as well as price levels, at P3. Consumption is returned to its original level, due to the decrease in the real value of money and investment decreases due to the increase in the real interest rate. Overall the impact of a tax cut will increase the price levels as well as the interest rates in the long term.
Consider the effects of an injection to stimulate the economy in the short and the long term: the expansionary fiscal policy.
When the government is increasing the budget deficit they are adopting an expansionary stance in their objective to stimulate the economy by raising injection into the economy relative to outlays, or by increasing government outlays relative to the collection of revenues. An increase in the deficit will stimulate planned expenditure, causing the IS curve to shift to the right.
In connection, an increase in the budget deficit can take form in an increase in government consumption (current spending) and government investment (capital spending) or a decrease in taxes.
The Keynesian Cross states, in respect to this policy that the government purchases multiplier raises the level of income at any given interest rate. This can be illustrated using the equation: ^G / ( 1 – MPC )
As a result of this increase in planned expenditure, the IS curve shifts to the right. In addition, the increase in planned expenditure resulting from an increase in government expenditure increases production and hence increases the level of national income.
The liquidity preference theory states that an increase in the level of total income will increase the quantity of money demanded at every interest rate, given that demand is dependent on income. However, supply has not been altered, but a higher level of money demand results in an increase in the interest rate. This increase in the real interest rate induces firms to save more relative to spend because the increase represents an increase in costs. The decrease in investment “offsets the expansionary effort of the increase in government purchases” and hence investment becomes unfavourable (Mankiw, 2007, pg.305). These events are illustrated in the diagrams below:
Nevertheless, in the long run, national income returns to its natural rate as AD decreases. The interest rate is further increased to R3 and the price level alters and is increased to P3. Furthermore, consumption returns back to its natural level due to the increase in the price level and the decrease in the real value of money. Also, investment is decreased due to further increases in the interest rate.
Ultimately an increase in the budgetary deficit will increase the price levels and the interest rate.
Black, J. (1997), A Dictionary of Economics, Oxford University Press, New York.
Mankiw, N. G. (2007), Macroeconomics, 6th edn, Worth Publishers, USA.
Morris, R. (2004), Macroeconomics Down Under, 2nd edn, John Wiley & Sons, Queensland.
NineMSN: Money, News & Analysis, Rudd unveils $10 billion stimulus package viewed 9th February. 2009, <http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=646631>
RBA revised 2009, viewed 9th February, 2009, <http://www.rba.gov.au>