The big thing for me is you can't gain time only lose it, so you need to be in the hunt all the time.. I think the old days of take it easy for the first few days and see where you are on sunday doesn't apply anymore.
If you stick in the top 5 of your competition all the way and pounce on the stages you know you can make time up on. That will slingshot you up the order.
Also you need to remember, while the results from last year and the past can give an idea of where you can run, remember there are guys like David Ayre's, Snowy and now Newton that need to be slotted in the mix and I dare say that, that could be the potential podium for EM next year (not neccissarily in that order).