This varies depending on the organization and meeting budget - most don't give bonuses in a bad year. The thing about an office job you're trying to make a career out of, is they can't make you work overtime, but if you don't it just looks bad to upper management and you can enjoy your glass ceiling career path because ultimately they'll promote the guy who is willing to work the overtime for nothing.
Sucks but the same thing will happen with tradies when replaced with immigrant workers willing to do the same job for less.