Petrol Price And The Usd

[chrissso]

SO, I complied a table of what the price of petrol at the pump should be in QLD depending on the USD/AUD exchange rate and the price of crude per barrel.

It takes into account that in QLD there is approx 40c per litre of tax.

There is a magical constant number that I can explain how I got it, but don't know what it represents.

Its seems about right by going on history of oil price vs pump fuel price.

I derived it from taking the highest price I saw at the pump minus the tax and AUD cost per barrel at the time.

So $150USD /.95exc rate / ($1.59 ppl -40c tax) =132, rounded down.

I use this to calc the price at the pump - Cost per barrel USD / AUD USD exchange rate / magical number +tax

SO at the moment, oil is $70 USD, exchange rate is .67 and I just saw the price of fuel at $1.47. WTF!!! Should be more like $1.20pl

There are some things that I can't account for. These would be:-

The delay for the oil that cost that much to hit the consumer.

The cost of refining may have gone up.

There's prolly other things that I haven't taken in account, and I might have fuct my maths, please by all means set me straight.

BUT, oil has been coming down for some time now, I haven't really seen the fuel come down that much at all...

If there is simply a delay, we should see the price at the pump reach $1.20 (ulp), at the expensive time of the week.

I won't be holding my breath though.

Seriously. WTF...

petrol_price.pdf

[Col-GTSX]

Yeah there are many factors involved...

One to remember is wen fuel first hit $1.50 the oil companys quartered their profits, so now there is some time for them to reclaim lost profits for the shareholders.

You also pointed out your not sure how long it takes for the price to change as in how long it takes before their paying the cheaper price etc...

As I understand it if a price rises they rise with it, like within 24 hours. So if they still have cheaper stock they can profit some cream of that. However if the price drops they drop it as fast or as slow as the other companys around them. Almost like a legal way of price fixing, to maintain the highest possible profit margins...

As you said, I dont really understand the fuel pricing either I can only take what i know about retailers and try and adopt it to the fuel gaints. The report the ACCC posted about the pricing of fuel is downloadable, however is a 1300 page pdf (got time )...

One thing is for sure, if we dont drop our interest rates again next month, consumer confidence will be shattered for christams and we will hit $2 a litre before the end of the year. Damn media and their consumer scare tatics using that "R" word. Also one thing to point out is the fact we are (Australia) now a very attractive target for exports to countries liek the US, as the dollar has dropped so much. So now is a good time to holiday here, buy from here and basiclly rape everything we got...

[R33GTRKid]

^^^ Dood you obviously do not know much about economics and the exchange rate.....

if everyone is buying up our shite, there is demand on our dollar (they need to buy our dollars to buy our shite) which increases the value of the dollar not decreases it.

that means petrol becomes cheaper for us to buy because our dollar is getting more USD's which is the currency in which wholesale buys fuel....

[chrissso]

I don't understand the whole consumer confidence thing versus the $2 a litre.

How do you figure that?

[jase-r34]

Kinda off topic, but still in regards to fuel.....

A mate of mine got an email recently outlining a strategy to help lower the price of fuel. The downside is that it takes a LOT of consumers working together to even give it a chance of working.

In short it basically said that if there was an announcement to boycott (spelling??) one particular service station, eg - Shell, for a significant length of time, then it would force them to lower their price... and the others would follow suit.

All sounds good in theory, but getting it to happen would be something else!

My 2c

[Col-GTSX]

^^^ Dood you obviously do not know much about economics and the exchange rate.....

I know allot about singstar thats my passion...

Seriously its my day job... I just dont want to stump anyone with big explainations or anything too sudden...

When the dollar itself changes in value (i.e. x dollars to buy item z later costs y dollars where x is not equal to y, and generally y>x) this implies that either the actual value of the item is greater or less (that is, individuals value it more), or that the value of the dollar has changed.

I only touched on the tip of the ice burg, unfortunatlly there is a million things to consider...

But in short if people within Australia stop spending this Christmas we are looking at higher prices on everything...

Heavy private exporting, ie overseas consumers buying from Australia does not strengthen our dollar...

It takes billion dollar deals to put a dint in it... Like Australias Coal and Oil trade with China for example... The problem we face (which is a worst case) is that everyone within Australia stops paying back credit card debt and home mortgages etc... As when the "owed" balance of Australia economy gets higher our dollar deminishs faster than a ball sack in cold water... There are few main factors in which determine the buy & sell price of the Aussie dollar, the worst part is that the most important factor is "verbal value" in the commodities markets...

Anyways my original explaination was in relation to the fuel pricing, hence why I dumbed it down a bit...

In short it basically said that if there was an announcement to boycott (spelling??) one particular service station, eg - Shell, for a significant length of time,

Im not a lawyer or any legal advisor, however I have done training and have a certificate of qualifaction in the "Consumer Trading Practices act" and this suggestion sounds like "market share fixing" which is illegal and if it were tied back to one of Shell's competitors it would be a MASSIVE MASSIVE breach of the law and would end in a huge law suit...

But yeah sounds half reasonable in theory likethe buy no fuel today idea from a year ago... Unfortunatlly no one would be game to advertise it in fear of being sued by Shell...

[Dantay]

people who deal in the economy and intangible assests defy my logic.

the only thing I know is that channel Seven should stop the "mind your money" shows, the PM should appear on QandA not with Koshy.

[jase-r34]

Im not a lawyer or any legal advisor, however I have done training and have a certificate of qualifaction in the "Consumer Trading Practices act" and this suggestion sounds like "market share fixing" which is illegal and if it were tied back to one of Shell's competitors it would be a MASSIVE MASSIVE breach of the law and would end in a huge law suit...

But yeah sounds half reasonable in theory likethe buy no fuel today idea from a year ago... Unfortunatlly no one would be game to advertise it in fear of being sued by Shell...

Yeah that makes sense, but what if it was advertised as " don't buy fuel from the big yellow servo" lol

Oh well, looks like we are gonna be stuck paying more than we should be for a while yet! Thats why I bought a bike

[FTO]

That seems a lot of trouble to go to, just to find out we are being screwed over?

I think you forgot the 'x' factor = times greed..

I thought it was common knowledge now..that the public is basically treated as a heard of milking cows.

Maybe Coles/Woolies could explain the finer points on fuel pricing policy, they are the experts..me, I just eat grass.

Edited November 12, 2008 by FTO