Aus Dollar Vs Yen

[sleeper393]

does anyone know the trend with the yen ? our dollar is low at the moment , does it fluctuate around this time of year , or is it going to stay low, importers do you have any hope for the not to distant future ?

[rtune]

does anyone know the trend with the yen ? our dollar is low at the moment , does it fluctuate around this time of year , or is it going to stay low, importers do you have any hope for the not to distant future ?

Anyone who could give you reliable advice would be busy making themselves millions in the fx market.

my unreliable advice:

the news this week is the USD is collapsing due to zero interest rate policy, and so the aud and nzd is

benefiting against usd, but losing against euro, and especially yen..

I don't think this is gonna change. It isn't a seasonal thing. The yen is like the last big economy to hide

money in, so if anything the yen might want to get even stronger. auctions.yahoo.co.jp = getting even

more expensive. ebay.com & ebay.co.uk = getting cheaper (usd and brit pound are tanking harder than

usd now).

[changi]

even the so called experts have trouble trying to predict currency exchange rates/trends. for instance, nobody predicted the AU$ would crash as it has; at least, nobody I was listening to or reading, and I have a keen interest in the exchange rates for the Yen and the US $.

anyway, if you wish to get a better idea on the whys and wherefores of currencies go to < www.x-rates.com >. some good info there.

I imported my GTR 9 months ago when the AU$ fetched approx 100 Yen. at todays rate [approx 61] I would have to consider if I could afford to import the same car now.

are you considering importing?.

[changi]

does anyone know the trend with the yen ? our dollar is low at the moment , does it fluctuate around this time of year , or is it going to stay low, importers do you have any hope for the not to distant future ?

the last time the AU$ tanked [around '99-'00]it fell to less than .50. it took until July '08 to recover to it's high of .97 ish. so I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for a speedy recovery.

[Beer Baron]

no one can really tell you what will happen in the future. I can tell you heaps about what's happened in the past though... if I could see the future i'd be making lots of bets on horse races that's for sure.

it seems likely that the aud will improve against the yen but how much and how soon is tough to predict given the wild economic times we are in. there a lot of pressure from within and without japan to push the yen down. japan relies heavily on it's exports to keep it's economy going and a strong yen is not good for that. and on the same plane most countries that trade with japan do so in deficit so they don't want to be racking that up in super strong yen. action may well be taken to help force the yen lower but even that is no sure thing.

specifically relating to car imports at the moment the best buys are already here in aus. the aud has dropped about 40% of it's value against the yen in the last few months. so buying a car that's already here from someone who imported when the aud was strong makes the most sense. plus the local used car market is very flat right now so people who are forced into selling will be willing to take a hit just to move the car.

[mxfly]

If you thought the AUD is bad atm, imagine if the fed reserve did not buy up billions of AUD in October in order to stabilise our currency, it would be in the 50's i reckon.

[sleeper393]

yeah i was looking at importing a 2003 axis autech stagea early next year, within 2 months the arse end dropped out of the economy and im pissed off , i wanted a primo example , you know all the bells and whistles grade 4.5 to 5.0.

[autoworx]

the au fed buying currency does not support or sustain a particular level as such , it merely smooths out such radical movements in currencies that we have seen recently . the fed did say this when they bought auds , they were not seeking a specific level , just 10% movements over short periods of time would be damaging and must be managed.

sharemarkets and commodity markets are starting to rise in the last few weeks . this is a good sign . soft commodities in particular (coffee , corn , concrete etc) have made considerable moves as doomsday scenarios priced in to current markets have faded away and core fundamental supply shortfalls have risen as the major trading force once again . many hard commodities as in a similar situation , relatively stable demand and very low supply . this will over the next few months to the end of the year sustain the aud as will hopefully more stable world markets as risk aversion dissipates

if there is any sort of catastrophe , major corporate collapse or extremely bad data over that time risk aversion will again be the driving market force and aud will be hammered another round , probably to fifty. thats pretty much a 50/50 gamble , just look at the us auto makers if they collapse we will be at 50c. if not normal supply demand equations will factor in and the simple fact is the world needs resources . perhaps not at the level we had 12 months ago but a pretty healthy level just to supply basic comsumption

the jpy is a different kettle of fish . ridiculously over valued , propped up by massive internal reserves and foreign debt reserves and a political establishment unable or unwilling to take hard measures to sort out the currency. one would hope over the next 6-12 months political pressure will become unbearable and the government will have to take mesures to move the yen to a sustainable point. if not quite simply some of the big Japanese exporters that are household names will simply not exist . Toyota recently announced 8% price rises in aus for their product against a currency 40% devalued in 3 months . clearly thats unsustainable. the japanese governement hasnt sold major amounts of its yen reserveres since the early 90s and holds more of its own currency than any other government on the planet by a large amount

in short hang in there , its a gamble but if conditions work out ok , and personally i think they will and have already started to move in the right direction , you will see positive gains in the aud. its not going to take much . really at 70 yen and current prices many cars become viable and at 80 yen we can see a rebound in car prices in japan and still be ok

[sleeper393]

the au fed buying currency does not support or sustain a particular level as such , it merely smooths out such radical movements in currencies that we have seen recently . the fed did say this when they bought auds , they were not seeking a specific level , just 10% movements over short periods of time would be damaging and must be managed.

sharemarkets and commodity markets are starting to rise in the last few weeks . this is a good sign . soft commodities in particular (coffee , corn , concrete etc) have made considerable moves as doomsday scenarios priced in to current markets have faded away and core fundamental supply shortfalls have risen as the major trading force once again . many hard commodities as in a similar situation , relatively stable demand and very low supply . this will over the next few months to the end of the year sustain the aud as will hopefully more stable world markets as risk aversion dissipates

if there is any sort of catastrophe , major corporate collapse or extremely bad data over that time risk aversion will again be the driving market force and aud will be hammered another round , probably to fifty. thats pretty much a 50/50 gamble , just look at the us auto makers if they collapse we will be at 50c. if not normal supply demand equations will factor in and the simple fact is the world needs resources . perhaps not at the level we had 12 months ago but a pretty healthy level just to supply basic comsumption

the jpy is a different kettle of fish . ridiculously over valued , propped up by massive internal reserves and foreign debt reserves and a political establishment unable or unwilling to take hard measures to sort out the currency. one would hope over the next 6-12 months political pressure will become unbearable and the government will have to take mesures to move the yen to a sustainable point. if not quite simply some of the big Japanese exporters that are household names will simply not exist . Toyota recently announced 8% price rises in aus for their product against a currency 40% devalued in 3 months . clearly thats unsustainable. the japanese governement hasnt sold major amounts of its yen reserveres since the early 90s and holds more of its own currency than any other government on the planet by a large amount

in short hang in there , its a gamble but if conditions work out ok , and personally i think they will and have already started to move in the right direction , you will see positive gains in the aud. its not going to take much . really at 70 yen and current prices many cars become viable and at 80 yen we can see a rebound in car prices in japan and still be ok

so the way the yen is at the moment , if you know what would a rough est price on a primo grade 4.5 to 5.0 autech m35 be worth landed

[elrodeo666]

Dont expect the Japanese government to do anything about the situation..an over valued yen is great for the people with yen..e.g the rich...the rest of the millions..shoganai...e.g oh well....gambarimasu..just do ones best!!

The japanese government have done sweet fa since the bubble burst and wont do anything now.

Plus when you look at foreign loans on yen at 1-3% its not like companies will go elsewhere to borrow money. Japan doesnt care about the rest of the world, never has ,never will, this type of intrisic thinking is ingrained in their dna...

Things are getting pretty tough here and will get alot worse but the people with the money will always be sweet! If there is a return for the aussie dollar I cant see it going past 70 for quitw some time..When I came here 9 years ago the oz dollar was just 60yen to the $..it took nearly 9 years to get to where it was earlier this year so cant see it bouncing back real fast. The oz dollar was so over valued and now has been put back to what its worth.. It will come back, but not to the glory days of what it was..

[Chris Rogers]

Dont expect the Japanese government to do anything about the situation..an over valued yen is great for the people with yen..e.g the rich...the rest of the millions..shoganai...e.g oh well....gambarimasu..just do ones best!!

The japanese government have done sweet fa since the bubble burst and wont do anything now.

Plus when you look at foreign loans on yen at 1-3% its not like companies will go elsewhere to borrow money. Japan doesnt care about the rest of the world, never has ,never will, this type of intrisic thinking is ingrained in their dna...

Things are getting pretty tough here and will get alot worse but the people with the money will always be sweet! If there is a return for the aussie dollar I cant see it going past 70 for quitw some time..When I came here 9 years ago the oz dollar was just 60yen to the $..it took nearly 9 years to get to where it was earlier this year so cant see it bouncing back real fast. The oz dollar was so over valued and now has been put back to what its worth.. It will come back, but not to the glory days of what it was..

agree with bold point totally. the manufacturers are not that much better. I deal direct with 3 car audio related ones and they would prefer to die in their home market than to expand into others. the head of the company of one thinks it's time to close shop rather than concentrate on the o/seas markets.

I do agree it will take another 7-8 years to build back up. tis a cycle when you think about it.

[sleeper393]

agree with bold point totally. the manufacturers are not that much better. I deal direct with 3 car audio related ones and they would prefer to die in their home market than to expand into others. the head of the company of one thinks it's time to close shop rather than concentrate on the o/seas markets.

I do agree it will take another 7-8 years to build back up. tis a cycle when you think about it.

so chris people are saying better to find a autech m35 already landed , because of the exchange rate at the moment , anyone you know of that have autech nm35's , late 2003 model in mint condition ???????

[rtune]

Dont expect the Japanese government to do anything about the situation..an over valued yen is great for the people with yen..e.g the rich...the rest of the millions..shoganai...e.g oh well....gambarimasu..just do ones best!!

I don't agree. The Japanese economy is getting raped by a 90 yen to usd exchange rate. If Toyota is reporting a loss then other car markers are getting fubar'd !! All the crown jewels in the japanese economy are bleeding. They are forced to go back to zero interest rates (hurting the saving housewives) and I doubt many japanese still hold foreign stocks or currencies now - not after all these implosions and scandals.

So basically the government is going to want to do anything to get then yen back to 100 to the usd.. however they have very limited tools to do that, interest rates being zero already. So they have to suffer. It isn't a matter about whether they care or not for gaijins, just like every other country they care most about their own economy and it is in real trouble now at these exchange rates. The banks may be safe, but the rest of the economy just can't take a 25% drop in exports for a sustained period.

Unfortunately for us, though, improving things back to 100 yen or so to the usd would be considered a decent clawback by Japan but imports will still be crazy prices for us because we went from 99 cents to the US to sub 70 cents!

[elrodeo666]

Bloke ..major companies here are getting hammered..Nissan took big losses and now are winding back production..Canon have dramas, Sony, Sanyo, Toyota, Isuzu, Panasonic...the list goes on and on. You got to remember they have all been here before with the bubble..

I agree with what your saying in regards to getting the US dollar back to 100yen and I think that will happen but as far as the government being able to do this, they havent been able to get the Japanese economy back on track since the recession. Property values are all time lows year by year , people are shitting themselves in small businesses but the one thing is and I saw this yesterday, the japanese consumer will still spend his/her money regardless. Yesterday was madness in town, crew everywhere buying up for xmas.

The biggest players in all this are the people who have giving out ¥ loans to o/seas investors at low % rates. After the drop in US dollar they have called in loans in a massive scale and thats caning some major players worldwide. Yep japanese economy is being raped and the government should do something about it but an understanding of Japanese wa (kata) comes into play here...for good and country the people have to suffer and they will, regardless of how tuff things get.

My misso is ex finacial adviser for major Korean company and she was telling me couple nights ago that something like 50-70,000 people have committed suicide in the last few months due to the economic world wide crash..crazy shit

[OzCarImports]

Just run with .60 - .65 in the next couplef months thats safe, but who know buddy.

Buying one that is already landed brought at the old rates is a very good option, but they are few and far between now

Good Luck