A Step by Step Guide to STOP THE CHANGES to the 15 Year Rule

[ian]

can't even bare to think of myself behind the wheel of a chook tin or a commo.

I agree entirely.. And anyone having a look though my paper will see what I'm actually advocating is an 'option 4' ie

Option 4 - Make no changes to the current arrangements, AND remove some of the more ridiculous restrictions and procedures on cars < 15 years old.

i.e. change SEVS so that -

1. There is no quota for each RAW, i.e. scrap the restrictive 100 vehicle per year limit.

2. Modified vehicles can be imported.

3. Each individual RAW application can cover a range of engines and variations of a model.

4. Allow damaged and previously repaired vehicles to be imported, though require them to be identified as such, so that any downstream buyer will be aware.

5. Allow for individuals to apply for the Import Approval, not just RAWS

6. Tyres only need to be changed if they are not roadworthy

If we did that, the number of > 15 year old cars wouldn't be increasing!!!

Ian

[Roy]

Silly question, but arent there enough imports getting around on our roads at the moment to handle demand. Everyone who wants to buy an import seems hellbent on importing one themselves when there are so many good examples already on Aus shores.

Is it purely a cost thing, i cant understand all the kicking and screaming about not being able to bring in R32, 300ZX, S13s, Rx7s, 4WDs etc.

What i would understand is ppl kickin up a fuss over cars that are not so common locally, but perhaps the question should be asked why are they so uncommon to start with. Doesnt really mean that a person shouldnt be allowed access to that car though, but like all things in life, if you want it, you will pay the premium for it.

[Merli]

Option 4 - Make no changes to the current arrangements, AND remove some of the more ridiculous restrictions and procedures on cars < 15 years old.

So basically you want to keep the 15 year rule, AND slacken the SEVS restrictions???

And you think that won't result in even more cars being imported?!?!? Riiiiiiiiiiight.

Do you remember the Supply/Demand curves in mircoeconomics? This is amazingly basic, and I'm sure this isn't the first you've seen this, but let me refresh your memory.

I don't think I need to say anymore in relation to price drop of our cars in relation to the huge influx of cheaper, older models in the market.

And for those of your who say that "you don't buy your cars for their resale value, you obviously haven't owned a car yet that has dropped $20,000 in 6 months, so lets just keep things in perspective, okay? Not everyone loses $5,000 on their $15,000 car in 2 years. The higher the price and newer the car, the harder and faster the depreciation rate, and it's something we ALL have to take into consideration.

[C-Red]

As much as I hate to say it, the feds needed to do something to stop the flow of shitbox 15yo imports coming in - there's a yard around the corner that is chock full of Pajeros, Patrols etc etc and low level Euro stuff. Now I'd struggle for anyone in here to say that those sort of vehicles were imported in the spirit of the legislation. I really dont think there is an easily workable solution to this problem so we're all being punished for yards full of crap.

My 2.2 cents.

Jash

[ian]

So basically you want to keep the 15 year rule, AND slacken the SEVS restrictions???

And you think that won't result in even more cars being imported?!?!? Riiiiiiiiiiight.

If you look at what I said ie

If we did that, the number of > 15 year old cars wouldn't be increasing!!!

It's clear what I said - the number of OLDER cars wouldn't be increasing!

and I think you are right -

I don't think I need to say anymore in relation to price drop of our cars in relation to the huge influx of cheaper, older models in the market.

though not for the reason you are thinking.. Anybody, in any industry, who wants what THEY already have to be made artificially expensive for anyone else to get, ie "I'm all right, stuff you mate" doesn't need to say much more on the topic :-)

As for

And for those of your who say that "you don't buy your cars for their resale value, you obviously haven't owned a car yet that has dropped $20,000 in 6 months, so lets just keep things in perspective, okay? Not everyone loses $5,000 on their $15,000 car in 2 years. The higher the price and newer the car, the harder and faster the depreciation rate, and it's something we ALL have to take into consideration.

Well yes, though not in the manner you mean.. One of the problems in Australia is that new cars are TOO expensive, and the depreciation rate is too SLOW (except in the first year when it drops to a more sensible value) compared to any other comparable country. Thus the price of second hand cars is too high as well - which all leads to a very inefficient market, and our extremely old and crappy fleet.

In contrast, in Japan new cars are much cheaper, they depreciate fast, and are replaced often...

And I find it hard to believe that anyone paying 60K for a car wouldn't realise that it wasn't going to drop in value pretty fast - ie that is YOUR choice when you buy it!

Give me yell if you want me to take you through the economic consequences of free trade vs trade barriers and protectionism..

Ian

[ian]

As much as I hate to say it, the feds needed to do something to stop the flow of shitbox 15yo imports coming in - there's a yard around the corner that is chock full of Pajeros, Patrols etc etc and low level Euro stuff. Now I'd struggle for anyone in here to say that those sort of vehicles were imported in the spirit of the legislation. I really dont think there is an easily workable solution to this problem so we're all being punished for yards full of crap.

My 2.2 cents.

Jash

I disagree, I think there is a simple solution, make it much easier to bring cars in UNDER 15 years of age!

And if all those 'shit boxes' can pass the same road examination test that all the other cars already in Aus have to, and people are deciding to bring them in (and even assuming they have trouble selling them) why should we interfere with their choice? And how many of them are there relative to the 150,000 NEW four wheel drives sold last year?

Ian

[Merli]

Anybody, in any industry, who wants what THEY already have to be made artificially expensive for anyone else to get, ie "I'm all right, stuff you mate" doesn't need to say much more on the topic :-)

Well of course that's true, but you forget that I will also be purchasing many other cars in the future, so I also have a financial interest in lowering the price of cars on the market. But I would much prefer to pay more to start with, and suffer a lower depreciation rate, than pay less to start with and suffer a higher depreciation rate.

Well yes, though not in the manner you mean.. One of the problems in Australia is that new cars are TOO expensive, and the depreciation rate is too SLOW (except in the first year when it drops to a more sensible value) compared to any other comparable country.  Thus the price of second hand cars is too high as well - which all leads to a very inefficient market, and our extremely old and crappy fleet.

All the above is purely personal opinion on the domestic market, and has absolutely no bearing on how we will affect the price of 10-15 year old imported cars (i.e. this discussion)

And I find it hard to believe that anyone paying 60K for a car wouldn't realise that it wasn't going to drop in value pretty fast - ie that is YOUR choice when you buy it!

Give me yell if you want me to take you through the economic consequences  of free trade vs trade barriers and protectionism..

Of course they realise it. They EXPECT it. But when a buyer purchases a $60k second hand car, they DON'T EXPECT to also lose $20k on it as they would a new car purchase. Unfortunately, that's what's happening right now due to the influx of cars through the 15 year old rule.

And thanks for the offer, but I did micro and macroeconomics at universtity, I don't need to be "taken through it".......... Although I should really re-read my notes :P

[Merli]

though not for the reason you are thinking.. Anybody, in any industry, who wants what THEY already have to be made artificially expensive for anyone else to get, ie "I'm all right, stuff you mate" doesn't need to say much more on the topic :-)

Yes of course, but you also forget that I will also be buying many more cars in the future, so I have a vested interest in keeping the market value of cars lower just like you. But I would MUCH rather prefer to pay a higher price for the car and suffer a lower depreciation rate, than pay slightly less for the car, but have the value depreciate like the titanic because of market oversaturation.

Well yes, though not in the manner you mean.. One of the problems in Australia is that new cars are TOO expensive, and the depreciation rate is too SLOW (except in the first year when it drops to a more sensible value) compared to any other comparable country.  Thus the price of second hand cars is too high as well - which all leads to a very inefficient market, and our extremely old and crappy fleet.

The above is just pure personal opinion about the domestic market and has very little bearing on the grey import market, as per this discussion.

And I find it hard to believe that anyone paying 60K for a car wouldn't realise that it wasn't going to drop in value pretty fast - ie that is YOUR choice when you buy it!

Give me yell if you want me to take you through the economic consequences  of free trade vs trade barriers and protectionism..

Of course they realise that. In fact, they EXPECT it, when buying a new car. But buyers do NOT expect that kind of vicious depreciation when purchasing a USED car, which is exactly what has happened to owners of the more expensive grey imports today.

And thanks for the offer, but I did micro and macroeconomics at university, I don't need to be "taken through it"... Although I should probably go and re-read my notes :P

[predator]

As much as I hate to say it, the feds needed to do something to stop the flow of shitbox 15yo imports coming in - there's a yard around the corner that is chock full of Pajeros, Patrols etc etc and low level Euro stuff. Now I'd struggle for anyone in here to say that those sort of vehicles were imported in the spirit of the legislation. I really dont think there is an easily workable solution to this problem so we're all being punished for yards full of crap.

True.. if anything needs to be done it should be restricting the alignment to similar vehicles sold here. Nobody really wants to see the 2nd hand market fall to pieces and everybody else *the majority* lose lots of money on their lancers, pajeros, and whatever else.

What needs to be done, and maybe that is the whole issue, is aligning the original goals of the 15 year legislation with appropriate changes, that is to allow the rare or quite different "enthusiast" vehicles here. If they wish to do this they could allow ONE or TWO 15 year cars a year PER INDIVIDUAL (which is about the limit you can sell in a year on the local market as a private individual). Bang, no instant mass importantion of 50x 15 year cars by dealers, which is causing the majority of the problems in the first place.

With R32 GTS-T, R32 GTR, specifically these models are already here, and already subjected to the market conditions - which includes the new imports system. We are not talking about a natural market system anyhow, these imports were brought into our market at a later stage (bar a whole 100 people who have an aussie delivered R32 GTR out there), and are not subject to "standard" local market conditions anyhow.

It seems basically what Merli, 4DoorGTR and many others is saying is "I have a GTR or xx, I don't want to lose money on it". But that is fine for you guys, but what about those before you 5 years ago that brought in a R33 GTR for $100,000?? they wouldn't be too happy either that its now worth $30-$50k, but that is what happens. What makes you any different to them?

Somebody quoted "GTR's aren't selling" well maybe that is just because the attraction of owning such an expensive car, and the police harrassment, insurance, and whatever else is becoming a little old. The "fad" is dying, people are buying newer cars more and more than ever before. Everybody wants "new and sporty *looking*", not "old and fast". I think that is the real reason for maybe a decline in peoples demand, and those wanting to pay $50k for a car 10 years old is less and less.

p.s. merli: yeah i did 1st year economics and macroeconimcs as well .. but i think you missed the fine print which said "these are ideal and a completely standard market conditions". There is a whole other side to the coin of artificial markets, trade barriers and whatever else which comes with more indepth theories to this basic market model!

[ian]

The above is just pure personal opinion about the domestic market and has very little bearing on the grey import market, as per this discussion.

And thanks for the offer, but I did micro and macroeconomics at university, I don't need to be "taken through it"... Although I should probably go and re-read my notes :rofl:

Hm, not quite right - not just a personal opinion. The numbers - ie age of our fleet, new car cost in terms of average after tax wages, car holding period, tax level applied by government etc etc, all indicate what I said.

The Australian car market is pathetic compared many others, in terms of price, features, and model choice... And given how cheap it is to ship cars around, this just shouldn't be so!

And it's a bigger gap that you realise - when I was looking for a new car in Japan a few years ago, the same model was in Aus for more thant TWICE the price...

And don't re read your notes, they will induce sleepiness.. :-)

[Merli]

It seems basically what Merli, 4DoorGTR and many others is saying is "I have a GTR or xx, I don't want to lose money on it". But that is fine for you guys, but what about those before you 5 years ago that brought in a R33 GTR for $100,000?? they wouldn't be too happy either that its now worth $30-$50k, but that is what happens. What makes you any different to them?

"that is what happens", only because of market oversaturation. And this 15 year old rule only lends itself to creating more of a problem, and a steeper depreciation rate.

p.s. merli: yeah i did 1st year economics and macroeconimcs as well .. but i think you missed the fine print which said "these are ideal and a completely standard market conditions". There is a whole other side to the coin of artificial markets, trade barriers and whatever else which comes with more indepth theories to this basic market model!

You assume I only did first year eco But yes, I did disclaimer my little graph by saying that it was "extremely basic" or something along those lines. Supply and Demand relationship, no matter how complex the trade relations between two companies/countries are, still always subscribe to that simply yet accurate theory.

[ian]

What needs to be done, and maybe that is the whole issue, is aligning the original goals of the 15 year legislation with appropriate changes, that is to allow the rare or quite different "enthusiast" vehicles here. If they wish to do this they could allow ONE or TWO 15 year cars a year PER INDIVIDUAL (which is about the limit you can sell in a year on the local market as a private individual). Bang, no instant mass importantion of 50x 15 year cars by dealers, which is causing the majority of the problems in the first place.  

I agree with predator - that wouldn't be a bad idea - but I'd widen it to 'modern' cars as well. If everybody else gets their R34 for half the price I did, I don't care! It will mean more of them on the road (good) more parts in the shops (good), more people who can do things to them (good), less crappy V8's on the road (good), and I knew that risk existed when I bought the car! And even if the car price drops in half, it STILL is less of a loss to me than buying a local non imported car with similar brakes, steering, traction control, comfort, power, etc would have been due to what the silly price would have been!

[The_Paladin]

interesting.........many people wanting the 15 yearold rule to be scrapped drive jap imports.

sure, keeps the resale of your car high and insurance down.

what about those who dont have one?

very selfish guys

very

*putting on flame retardent undies and bra*

[predator]

The Australian car market is pathetic compared many others, in terms of price, features, and model choice... And given how cheap it is to ship cars around, this just shouldn't be so!

Maybe, but you also have to remember we have a population of 18 million, not 250million, not 150million, etc - we are a pretty small market. The more consumers you have the more by virtue choices they want, but we are restricted a little there. So I don't think you can impose "oh but in other countries" on the vehicle industry. Australia is pretty unique, in fact its very strange we DO have in fact have a local manufacturing industry and DO export a few cars overseas. Considering our population, its a pretty good effort.

Of course you can say "but what about NZ they have a smaller population and have lots of imports". But you can also look at NZ with no local industry, high unemployment, and other problems. Often having a car trade market that is too open can cause other associated problems. Whether anybody (and i don't particularly) likes locally produced cars, they DO create many tens of thousands of jobs throughout Australia.

So well, I can see many sides to the story, and sometimes protectionism (re: restricting what we can import) is good for Australia - but its not an easy issue.

[The_Paladin]

ford and holden have too strong a following for the jap imports to dint.

2nd hand cars are not in fasion. the real money is in the new market. jap cars are not a threat.

i still stand with what i said before. i think it's hyprocritical that many people here aginst the 15 year rule got their cars with it. according to what vechiels are listed in their profile etc.............

[Roy]

what about those who dont have one?

very selfish guys

i still stand with what i said before. i think it's hyprocritical that many people here aginst the 15 year rule got their cars with it. according to what vechiels are listed in their profile etc.............

But my point is so what if they can no longer import a car themselves, anyone chasing an S13, R31, R32, Z32 etc etc already have a huge choice of cars sitting in local caryards, ppls driveways and weekend papers...why do they need to import their own. If they wasnted a Mitsubishi EVO or RVR the fine, these cars arent exactly readily availiable, but do a countback on how many S13, R31, R32, Z32 compliance plates have been issued over the years.

Understandably ppl are getting upset of changes in legislation, but its always the case, just as somehting too good to be true is about to eventuate... it falls in a heap of sour grapes. :Oops:

If you cant afford 12-15k to buy an S13/R32 instead of the 8-10k then i doubt you can afford the running costs anyway. (Gross generalisation i know )

[ian]

Maybe, but you also have to remember we have a population of 18 million, not 250million, not 150million, etc - we are a pretty small market. The more consumers you have the more by virtue choices they want, but we are restricted a little there. So I don't think you can impose "oh but in other countries" on the vehicle industry. Australia is pretty unique, in fact its very strange we DO have in fact have a local manufacturing industry and DO export a few cars overseas. Considering our population, its a pretty good effort.  

My argument is that these trade barriers are more about protecting the importing companies - the local production is additionally protected by the tariffs and the shipping distances. And the only reason they are competitive enough to ship overseas is BECAUSE of the government protection - exactly what WE complain about when WE try and export food to Europe or the USA! That's the trouble with trade protection, if everyone protects their local market, and want access to everybody else, it just doesn't work.. And in the longer run, having the protected industry normally does more damage than good - if you're interested I'll give a few examples.

And yes, at this point I would have mentioned NZ, but you did for me :-) And even ignoring them, we are a big enough market to have efficient importing, we are NOT a big enough market for manufacturing..

Of course you can say "but what about NZ they have a smaller population and have lots of imports". But you can also look at NZ with no local industry, high unemployment, and other problems. Often having a car trade market that is too open can cause other associated problems. Whether anybody (and i don't particularly) likes locally produced cars, they DO create many tens of thousands of jobs throughout Australia.  

Actually, you have things back to front here. NZ had massive problems due to rampant protectionism in many areas, including (as you mentioned) high unemployment, and also bad trade balances, stuffed economy, etc etc.

Freeing things up did them a hell of a lot of good, and certainly went a fair way in helping the underlying problems!

(for more info, go to http://www.tln.org.nz/home.asp)

So well, I can see many sides to the story, and sometimes protectionism (re: restricting what we can import) is good for Australia - but its not an easy issue.

Hmm, not many that I can think of (taking at least the medium term view) - pretty much quarantine issues are the only one I can think of - ie when we want to keep out pests or diseases that we don't have and certainly don't want!

[DaiOni]

Got their car in by the 15yr rule?? don't think so - most of the people on here got there car in via the old standard import laws. The 15yr rule has only very recently (ie: due to '89) become interesting, in terms of a wave of high performance japanese cars.

As for limiting user access to the 15yr rule. It would have to be one car per person per year (perhaps even per 2-3 year period) - but even that is open to exploitation via commercial operations (given the profit margin potential and quantity of cars that can be sold).

[Snowman]

Blaming grey imports for the devaluation of cars is Im afraid utter crap. There have been some people on here saying that an Oz delivered R32 GTR has devalued from 100,000 to 40,000 because of grey imports.

Lets compare that to another Japanese super-car the NSX. My last car was a 1997 NSX valued new at $242,000 and was sold last year for $90,000. There are no grey imports on NSX's so why the massive devaluation? Its not like there's stacks of them around or that those that are are in crap condition. Mine certainly wasn't.

The prices of these cars will devalue regardless of grey imports. So don't go thinking that if suddenly the +15yo rule is scrapped your car will suddenly hold or increase in value.

[Merli]

Blaming grey imports for the devaluation of cars is Im afraid utter crap. There have been some people on here saying that an Oz delivered R32 GTR has devalued from 100,000 to 40,000 because of grey imports.

Lets compare that to another Japanese super-car the NSX. My last car was a 1997 NSX valued new at $242,000 and was sold last year for $90,000. There are no grey imports on NSX's so why the massive devaluation? Its not like there's stacks of them around or that those that are are in crap condition. Mine certainly wasn't.

The prices of these cars will devalue regardless of grey imports. So don't go thinking that if suddenly the +15yo rule is scrapped your car will suddenly hold or increase in value.

That's false logic right there.

Paraphrase: "An NSX depreciated a lot, and there are no NSX grey imports, so therefore grey imports will depreciate at the same rate."

The rest of us have managed to discuss this topic civilly and without the need to resort to childish calling of theories "utter crap"... If you can't step upto the level of conversation, feel free to sit back and watch.

And yes, I would be willing to bet my life on the fact that if there were only still 100 Australian delivered R32 GTRs in Australia (minus the 30 or so that would have been written off out of that original 100), that their value would be a LOT more than their current $30,000 value.

The reason the NSX depreciated from $250,000 to $90,000 is because they weren't worth $250,000 to start with (Personal opinion)