Iran & Strait Of Hormuz Blockade

[GTR-N1]

Perhaps this thread deserves to get transplanted later on into Wasteland > Current Affairs but...

Crude Oil > Fuel supplies are under threat by Iran's current intention to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

Interesting times...

I wonder what ticked them off.

[Galena33]

They are not happy about possible sanctions being imposed on their oil exports re their nuclear programme. So far its all talk though so hopefully it stays that way.

[Berk]

Lolz, they won't blockade the straight. It would be suicide, it would give the US of A a mandate to invade, overthrow and install a puppet govt, something that they desperately want to do. I think that the Iranian "training exercises" in the straight have probably been blown out/misconceived to be deployment, the next few days will tell all. Will it fizzle out into nothing like the millions the NSW govt. is about to spend on NYE fireworks, or will it explode into a colourful, spectacular and exciting affair, also like the NYE fireworks?

[Berk]

Also, $10 says that the US sentinel spy plane which landed in Iran is already in China by now.

[The Bogan]

I think their Arab brothers will get them to tow the line, they want the dollars from export, Iran needs them for local support, I see it as territorial pissing.

[FrangaR33]

They are not happy about possible sanctions being imposed on their oil exports re their nuclear programme. So far its all talk though so hopefully it stays that way.

This is perhaps one of the best times for Iran to start a war at least from the West's perspective, they get to justify destroying Iran and their nuclear program as a defensive action as opposed to the offensive wars the United States has more or less fought since Korea. It would regalvanise support for the United States from its European allies and also increase support for the United States in places like India, South Korea and Japan. Ultimately its not the Americans oil that will be interrupted by any potential blockade, its the Asian nations and Europe who would suffer.

Needless to say the U.S Fifth fleet would destroy any blockade let alone the other U.S armed forces assets that are no doubt on their way to the region as we speak.

On a different note I agree with Maxima that spy plane is long gone.

[GTR-N1]

Today's US News indicates that a blocked strait will indicate a fuel price rise to US$5/gallon at the pump;

...in other words, AUS$2.20/litre

[sneakey pete]

Props to Iran. They're doing this as a show of force (the training exercise) and its got everyone running for the bunkers in the hills, just like they'd have wanted.

[our12]

Hi.

Yes america would be looking for another conflict to get involved in as the armament and associated industries there need to be supplying the forces with weapons and back up logistics. People do not realise how much clout these companies have with regards to policy and how the economy there is very dependant on them producing 24/7. Without conflict america would be in a an even poorer economic position than they are now, Stupid world isn't it.

[The Bogan]

LOL, Iran has no real navy to talk about, yes they have sea mine laying capabilitys but not much else, the only thing that will happen is they will upset their neighbours, which is political suicide, the place is bad enough as it is without aggravating their neighbours means of making money.

As soon as a sea mine got layed I would make odds that that ship would be resting on the bottom within half a hour.

It's sad that yet again innocent civilians and their defence forces lives are at risk because of their crazy leaders and their aspirations for power.

Do we really need another unstable political regime with nuclear ambitions.

A few well placed missiles wouldn't go astray, you could even do some black work and take out key figures, a bit more difficult but a lot less "collateral damage".

I'm sure there some Arab nations that would agree, don't get in the way of the oil and cash flow unless you want to get run over.

[sikmatesubwoofa]

Well the Strait is pretty narrow, it's only like 50km wide and half that is actual Iranian territorial waters so technically by law they're allowed to close their half. To be honest I think if sanctions hadn't been imposed all this wouldn't have happened. The Iranian revolution happened over 30 years ago and the US is still upset their puppet Shah was kicked out. I don't think Iranians have much to like the US for, history proves that and the whole nuclear thing is just like the "WMDs" in Iraq. I don't get why the US has to start wars for bogus reasons they make, honestly they should just fix their damn economy. The biggest economy goes to war it'll have an impact on all of us and Iran is no Afghanistan or Iraq, they're gonna retaliate hard so because of "intelligence" that the US has on Iran the world might go into WW3 and that would impact everyone. Then brave Aussie soldiers have to go to war and die because of our "allies". I say no more to Aussie soldiers dying overseas and if this goes through they will. It's just sad.

[FrangaR33]

Well the Strait is pretty narrow, it's only like 50km wide and half that is actual Iranian territorial waters so technically by law they're allowed to close their half. To be honest I think if sanctions hadn't been imposed all this wouldn't have happened. The Iranian revolution happened over 30 years ago and the US is still upset their puppet Shah was kicked out. I don't think Iranians have much to like the US for, history proves that and the whole nuclear thing is just like the "WMDs" in Iraq. I don't get why the US has to start wars for bogus reasons they make, honestly they should just fix their damn economy. The biggest economy goes to war it'll have an impact on all of us and Iran is no Afghanistan or Iraq, they're gonna retaliate hard so because of "intelligence" that the US has on Iran the world might go into WW3 and that would impact everyone. Then brave Aussie soldiers have to go to war and die because of our "allies". I say no more to Aussie soldiers dying overseas and if this goes through they will. It's just sad.

Even the UN believe Iran is developing nuclear weapons, so unlike Iraq the WMD argument most definetly applies.

- Australia will be impacted by any blockade due to higher oil prices and fuel prices cripping our economy along with those economies in the rest of the industrialised world that rely on Middle Eastern oil.

- China will not allow any blockade to happen because they most of their oil through the Strait and will not allow their economy to be crippled by a madman in Iran.

- World war 3 will not come from any agressive action against the Iranians, perhaps others in the Arab world may get involved perhaps even Pakistan at an extreme stretch but this war even it escalates into a regional conflict will remain just that.

- World war's happen when countries are roughly evenly matched and conflict escalates until other powers get drawn in, any agressive action by the United States against Iran would result in Iran's and any of its allies war making capabilites destruction within a matter of days and the war within a matter of months.

- China's ascendency to the place of the worlds largest economic power is all but certain and they will not risk their place as top dog just to screw with the Americans. They will have plenty of opportunities in 15-20 years time when the size of the Chinese navy rivals that of the United States and they can finally have their showdown over something that matters to them Taiwan.

I think people underestimate the power of the United States Navy and airforce. Not counting air force aircraft the United States navy carrier air wings maintain more modern combat aircraft than any airforce in the world and that doesnt even take into account the hundreds of ships and submarines carrying cruise missles and also the thousands of U.S airforce aircraft. If there is war it will be a short one.

I will however say that an Iraq style invasion is probably not going to be the likely outcome if ti does come to war, more likely a complete destruction of Iran's war making capabiilites along with the destruction of Iran's ruling class and government and then either civil war or a Libya like uprising by the downtrodden. The Americans now know that nation building is not their forte and considering their economic position its going to be shock and awe for a couple of weeks perhaps months then back home.

[GTR-N1]

Whilst in agreement with above, would it not be more prudent for the US to nudge NATO to prepare for any contingency if it hasn't done so already?

After all, Europe would not want OPEC to take a stop gap measure of simply raising oil prices with the EU having to pay premium prices for Siberian crude eh?

[tweety bird]

http://www.smh.com.au/national/unleaded-ban-expected-to-cause-rise-in-fuel-prices-20120101-1ph95.html

we don't need Arabs to drive up the price of petrol, our government can do that all buy them selves.

[Berk]

I hate this country^^^

Ban this, ban that. One day there is going to be nothing left to ban.

[SS8_Gohan]

why not push for Ethanol? if anything, doesn't these events completely vindicate the decision? Australia has immense ethanol capability, as myself and countless others on this forum have shown there are not the fuel line corroding, engine blowing up problems all the status quo pushers say there was going to be. We make ethanol from waste by-product of sugar-cane and wheat so we're not affecting food prices, and Melbourne will be getting an ethanol plant from house-hold waste soon. Ethanol is the perfect transitory fuel until we come up with better solution (hydrogen infrastructure/network, electric cars charged by renewable sources etc). What could be better... we buy Australian made ethanol from aussie farmers and reduce our use of imported oil. Whilst Australia isn't big enough to effect OPEC etc, if the world doesn't need much oil, then the power of places like Iran is greatly diminished.

you could even do some black work and take out key figures, a bit more difficult but a lot less "collateral damage".

already happening, not 100% clear who it is though. There have been assassinations, exploded ammo dumps etc... very little reporting of this going on. Obviously the drone that 'crashed' in Iran is further evidence of a covert campaign currently ongoing. Not sure though if it's Israelis with some US support, or more 50/50 or even other players... but there is definitely black operations ongoing in Iran at the moment.

The chest beating in the Straight also probably has to do with losing one of their main allies... Syria. I would think Iran has figured there's a good chance of regime change in Syria, and hence there goes an ally. So the events in the straight are probably just to show everyone Iran is still a force onto themselves and losing Syria isn't that big a deal and they still have plenty of influence in the region ergo, showing the ability to block fuel supplies if need be.

From all reports, there is NO appetite for a pre-emptive strike on Iran in the US. Advice is that the nuclear program would only be setback by a little... delayed... that's it. But then you would have massive upheaval in the region, pretty shitty result. US certainly will not be doing anything stupid, but Israel on the other hand.... they've gone pre-emptive on Nuclear reactors abroad before (Iraq, 80's i think) so it would be eyes on Israel to do anything in my opinion. I don't see there being any chance of Iran coping USA ordnance as a first strike, especially not whilst Obama is in, he's not that stupid.

The Republican candidates are just courting the Jewish vote with their hawkish comments on Iran, but if one of them got in their advisors would be the same "don't be stupid" (which is pretty hard thing to do if you look at the Republican candidates...)

There is also a legislative election in Iran march this year, but probably little change as the reformists are essentially not participating and key players are pretty much under house arrest anyway.

[tweety bird]

Ethanol is fine for newer cars, but for old cars (pre 1980) not so good, most won't run it.

[mad082]

Ethanol is fine for newer cars, but for old cars (pre 1980) not so good, most won't run it.

given that most people run them on premium to make up for the octane loss compared to the super leaded they were designed for, i don't think it's that much of an issue.

but yeah, i've been running e10 for years on multiple cars without issue. the only thing i do is change the fuel filter when i first get the car just in case it is full of crap that will break down a bit.

it's not the best to use in cars that are rarely driven though. it is more prone to absorbing water. the biggest issue though is for people with boats. most boats are designed to be run on regular unleaded and not on premium or e10. they will run ok, but it's not ideal.

[Berk]

Ethanol is fine (bring on E85), it's just the way that the Govt. bans everything that is a bit concerning.

Also, I haven't read this whole thread but has anyone mentioned Stuxnet yet?

Pretty freaking awesome.

[SS8_Gohan]

that's what i mean by covert campaign, cyber warfare, drones, troops on the ground, assassinations etc, it's all happening just not really being reported.