The End In Sight For Falcons And Commodores

[God_speed]

News.com.au article:

http://www.news.com....z-1226554833139

The end in sight for Falcons and Commodores - sources estimate from 2016

Would be sad to see no more Commodores and Falcons on the road because of the heritage they have going back such a long time, and I grew up during the beginning of that era of Commodores versus Falcons; after all the Kingswoods and Toranas.

But the writing was on the wall. Year after year of Large segment decline (in the local market at least). Everyone moving to SUVs and small/medium sized cars.

What do you reckon? Will anyone else miss them besides the die-hard V8 supercar fans? Will they make a comeback in another 20 years? Do they deserve to?

[darksky34]

Do not deserve to. But perhaps they deserve a place....like the skylines do. In 15 years time when production is finished maybe they'll be like the R34. Or not!

[mickey]

would make them something of a collectors car at least, the FPV/HSV versions anyway rather than the taxis.

[God_speed]

Yeah I can see HSV pulling out a few 'final series' as production finishes up on the VF. Could indeed be worth something if they make a more bespoke HSV model, like the W427, HRT 427, 1995 GTS-R, etc

[GTR-N1]

Is the ACT ready for the SummerNippons?

Actually, I wouldn't mind Holden resurrecting Bolwell for you young'uns

....umm that's how old my memory goes.

[R31Nismoid]

My usual email group (about 20 or so mates), this has been one of the main topics of discussion for the day (a good 200-300 emails)...

Labour rates are up so high now it's just not economical to manufacture in this country any more across many industries. Wonder where the Unions will be, having priced their own members out of jobs, probably nowhere.

Of course that is partly because of spiralling bills and costs of living, then add in other factors, so it is but one piece of a much bigger failing puzzle that the Gov't just aren't addressing or simply don't want too given it's tough decision (read: unpopular) time and has been for a while.

So overall not a surprising move at all really. Expect to see Toyota do the same thing and make an announcement in the next 12 months or so once they've evaluated their positions now the two major players are effectively throwing in the towel.

A sad day indeed as I hear from a source that's seen the new/updated models, will be announced shortly from Holden, are very amazing to look at over the VE.

[God_speed]

My usual email group (about 20 or so mates), this has been one of the main topics of discussion for the day (a good 200-300 emails)...

Labour rates are up so high now it's just not economical to manufacture in this country any more across many industries. Wonder where the Unions will be, having priced their own members out of jobs, probably nowhere.

Of course that is partly because of spiralling bills and costs of living, then add in other factors, so it is but one piece of a much bigger failing puzzle that the Gov't just aren't addressing or simply don't want too given it's tough decision (read: unpopular) time and has been for a while.

So overall not a surprising move at all really. Expect to see Toyota do the same thing and make an announcement in the next 12 months or so once they've evaluated their positions now the two major players are effectively throwing in the towel.

A sad day indeed as I hear from a source that's seen the new/updated models, will be announced shortly from Holden, are very amazing to look at over the VE.

The local market has also been protected for such a long time by tariffs on imported cars. Do you think we'll actually see the prices of imported vehicles get "corrected" if the LM auto industry dies off?

Interesting you say that about Toyota; some in the industry are talking about how Toyota is considering a third model line for Altona (in addition to Camry and Aurion). Possibly the RAV4 or Corolla, as they have capacity for it, and the next-gen (petrol) RAV4 shares the Camry's engine anyway.

Toyota's doing well at the moment, but as the revenue for all the parts suppliers here in Aus goes out the window with the imminent demise of the Falcadore, this would surely mean parts prices going skywards and production costs following suit if they continue to build here. The likes of Toyota already have problems trying to stave off the parallel part and counterfeit-parts industry; that problem will get much worse with fewer players in the game and OEM parts therefore becoming more expensive to produce through reduced economies of scale.

[Seano350GT]

Oh well, never liked either of them. Mainly because of the wankers that drive them.

Toyota is doing very well at the moment, at least my dealership turns over a shit load of cars per month consistently i can't us slowing down anytime soon.

[R31Nismoid]

The local market has also been protected for such a long time by tariffs on imported cars. Do you think we'll actually see the prices of imported vehicles get "corrected" if the LM auto industry dies off?

Interesting you say that about Toyota; some in the industry are talking about how Toyota is considering a third model line for Altona (in addition to Camry and Aurion). Possibly the RAV4 or Corolla, as they have capacity for it, and the next-gen (petrol) RAV4 shares the Camry's engine anyway.

Toyota's doing well at the moment, but as the revenue for all the parts suppliers here in Aus goes out the window with the imminent demise of the Falcadore, this would surely mean parts prices going skywards and production costs following suit if they continue to build here. The likes of Toyota already have problems trying to stave off the parallel part and counterfeit-parts industry; that problem will get much worse with fewer players in the game and OEM parts therefore becoming more expensive to produce through reduced economies of scale.

Has the increase of the Aussie dollar seen the prices drop?

A 200k car should cost around 20k less than it did 18 months ago... Of course not once dollar of that saving has been passed on

So it will be interesting to see but it's long term and won't occur until well into 2020, but you would think so if the LM does die off a little.

Then by the same stroke (as a mate pointed out) Audi and some other manufacturers have dropped prices quite noticeably and you are getting quite a bit for 80k currently where you were not 18 months ago. Perhaps this is where the shift is currently in price bracket terms.

It would be interesting to see if Toyota do expand or go the other way, logic would suggest on a cost basis - the other way.

[Mayuri Krab]

I will miss them as a cheap high performance sedan (xr6t mainly) Will probably buy a HSV or FPV before they die out.

Non of the current sedans from the main Jap makers interest me in the slightest besides some super expensive ones like Lexus LSF

Edited January 16, 2013 by Mayuri Krab

[iseekool]

It will be bad for the economy, imagine the flow on effects. Such as local component suppliers.

Maybe big cars with smaller turbo petrol or diesel engines should be the solution.

[Juan_2_3]

not surprising. Expect car manufacturing to be gone in the coming years, unless something massive happens.

From what i've heard Ford pretty much out the door anyway

[GTR-N1]

early 1980s...

I do remember a time when Kingswoods downsized to Commodores - VC I think - due to oil embargos.

They streaked ahead in sales whilst "X" series Falcons like 'whales', wallowed.

Over the years...

Camrys upsized, Corollas upsized, 3 series Mazdas upsized, Maximas upsized... > in fact about everything has upsized.

So once again - probably through necessity - does Holden dare to...???

2015...

Methinks not, whilst energy sources for cars have gone down different directions

[God_speed]

It will be bad for the economy, imagine the flow on effects. Such as local component suppliers.

Maybe big cars with smaller turbo petrol or diesel engines should be the solution.

Yeah Mark I don't see it being a good thing in the short term as far as jobs are concerned anyway. Won't make our GDP and exports look that great if that part of the industry goes as well (which would seem inevitable). But there is so much $$$ being thrown at the Aussie car industry by the govt that surely those millions could be directed to more... sustainable industries. At the moment it is like trying to flog a dead horse.

And as for big car / small/efficient engine?

See this article and many others. The Falcon EcoBoost is supposed to be quite a good machine. Pity that after a year on sale barely anyone is buying them.

Holden and HSV were working on liquid-injection LPG for a while now, not sure if it is ever coming to market in decent numbers but the on-paper figures were impressive. Significant fuel saving coupled with a slight performance *gain*.

Has the increase of the Aussie dollar seen the prices drop?

A 200k car should cost around 20k less than it did 18 months ago... Of course not once dollar of that saving has been passed on

So it will be interesting to see but it's long term and won't occur until well into 2020, but you would think so if the LM does die off a little.

Then by the same stroke (as a mate pointed out) Audi and some other manufacturers have dropped prices quite noticeably and you are getting quite a bit for 80k currently where you were not 18 months ago. Perhaps this is where the shift is currently in price bracket terms.

It would be interesting to see if Toyota do expand or go the other way, logic would suggest on a cost basis - the other way.

Yeah I remember seeing that a few premium mfrs were passing on the Aussie dollar benefit.

Are we as a country becoming bigger brand snobs? Of course your euro car is going to feel better put together than a Falcadore and boast better tech, but in terms of bang for your buck and features; while you might be getting a lot of Audi for your $80K, you'd be getting a lot more mumbo and occupant space with a Senator of equivalent price.

[*LOACH*]

My usual email group (about 20 or so mates), this has been one of the main topics of discussion for the day (a good 200-300 emails)...

Labour rates are up so high now it's just not economical to manufacture in this country any more across many industries. Wonder where the Unions will be, having priced their own members out of jobs, probably nowhere.

Of course that is partly because of spiralling bills and costs of living, then add in other factors, so it is but one piece of a much bigger failing puzzle that the Gov't just aren't addressing or simply don't want too given it's tough decision (read: unpopular) time and has been for a while.

So overall not a surprising move at all really. Expect to see Toyota do the same thing and make an announcement in the next 12 months or so once they've evaluated their positions now the two major players are effectively throwing in the towel.

A sad day indeed as I hear from a source that's seen the new/updated models, will be announced shortly from Holden, are very amazing to look at over the VE.

It isn't the unions fault and if the government is running the country so badly why is the economy doing so well. Would you prefer it if Australia was more like America where there is a class of working poor and the major auto manufacturers required massive bail outs from the government just to keep them soluble or even worse disappear completely like Pontiac.

OT I will believe the end for Commodores and Falcons has come when I go to the respective websites and they aren't available for sale anymore. Those cars have been through a massive worldwide economic crisis and the Falcon made it through the energy crisis. The article seems to have a fair bit of hearsay in it. Will wait and see.

Edited January 16, 2013 by *LOACH*

[God_speed]

early 1980s...

I do remember a time when Kingswoods downsized to Commodores - VC I think - due to oil embargos.

They streaked ahead in sales whilst "X" series Falcons like 'whales', wallowed.

Over the years...

Camrys upsized, Corollas upsized, 3 series Mazdas upsized, Maximas upsized... > in fact about everything has upsized.

So once again - probably through necessity - does Holden dare to...???

2015...

Methinks not, whilst energy sources for cars have gone down different directions

VB Commodore, yeah

(OT, I love how there's also a VP and a VK in the driveway )

I remember reading that the VB wasn't well received at first because we loved our big sedans like the XA-XC so much.

I reckon the VE series is huge on the road with the flared wheel arches and high waistline rising to a very high boot. It's a great looking car but it was a massive size increase over the VZ. Size wise I prefer the VZ ute over the VE. I think the VF will be a similar size to the VE. It's supposed to make use of aluminium in the body to reduce weight and they are consolidating the model line to decrease complexity in production and increase quality.

Holden are putting a fair bit behind their new Volt but like many alternative-fuel offerings they seem to take a ton of marketing $$ to finally get people into them and trusting that they won't explode if you look at them sideways

Edited January 16, 2013 by God_speed

[mad082]

a few months ago i was having a coffee with an engineer from holden who had been working on the replacement for the VE commodore. he didn't give much away, lol.

it will be a sad day for the average family car buyer if the commodore and falcon are scrapped. but i doubt it will be that simple. they will simply be replaced by an overseas model (from the states). there has already been plenty of speculation over the past 5 or 6 years about the falcon being expected to be replaced by a fwd model (such as the taurus). i know that i've got MOTOR magazines that are quite a few years old that have articles about it. i'm pretty sure the last one i bought had it in there and i haven't bought a car mag in at least 3 years.

large family cars will always have an advantage over SUVs, given that to get a SUV with the same space as a family car will cost a lot more, and all general running costs will be higher with the SUV, from fuel economy to tyres.

sure you can get euro cars cheaper these days, but they would still be more expensive than a base model commodore or falcon. and down the track, once they start to get up in mileage, i'd prefer the commodore or falcon. they are pretty trouble free even with high mileage. my VT just ticked over 260,000kms last week and i've put 60,000kms on it in the past 2 years without issue.

[God_speed]

a few months ago i was having a coffee with an engineer from holden who had been working on the replacement for the VE commodore. he didn't give much away, lol.

it will be a sad day for the average family car buyer if the commodore and falcon are scrapped. but i doubt it will be that simple. they will simply be replaced by an overseas model (from the states). there has already been plenty of speculation over the past 5 or 6 years about the falcon being expected to be replaced by a fwd model (such as the taurus). i know that i've got MOTOR magazines that are quite a few years old that have articles about it. i'm pretty sure the last one i bought had it in there and i haven't bought a car mag in at least 3 years.

large family cars will always have an advantage over SUVs, given that to get a SUV with the same space as a family car will cost a lot more, and all general running costs will be higher with the SUV, from fuel economy to tyres.

sure you can get euro cars cheaper these days, but they would still be more expensive than a base model commodore or falcon. and down the track, once they start to get up in mileage, i'd prefer the commodore or falcon. they are pretty trouble free even with high mileage. my VT just ticked over 260,000kms last week and i've put 60,000kms on it in the past 2 years without issue.

Yeah the idea of the Taurus replacing the Falcon has been with us for a long time. The first Taurus they tried to push to Aussies was that dog ugly thing that didn't have a single straight line anywhere on the body, back in the mid 90s. The new Taurus looks alright, is supposedly not a bad steer and I believe will also be available with AWD on some grades.

Those who need to tow will buy an SUV

I think you're right about SUVs being more expensive to run; not necessarily to buy though... Being classed by FCAI as commercial vehicles, the imported ones are exempt from the higher tariffs applied to other imported vehicles.

Commodore and Falcon might be a bit like a security blanket or your first toy as a kid - they have sentimental value to Aussies and we might bemoan the loss of them in the short term, but would we really be worse off without them? We clearly aren't buying enough of them, so it would appear not.

[mad082]

when i was saying that they are more expensive to buy, i was comparing vehicles of similar size. so to get a SUV with the same space inside as a commodore or falcon you would be up the price range a bit as you would be looking at things like a landcruiser or patrol, etc. where base models are more expensive than a base model commodore or falcon by a reasonable amount (at least the last time i looked, which i will admit is a little while ago, so things might've changed a bit). and they are also less practical in a day to day basis. things like parking in a shopping centre, etc.

i think the biggest loss will be the lack of utes in the range. sure, the general ute owner can be a bit of a bogan these days, but the utes themselves are good. you get the practicality of the ute with the comfort and drive of a family sedan (and the performance).

[iseekool]

Yep. Aussie cars (Aurion, Commodore, Falcon) offer excellent performance per dollar. New vs. New, in the same price bracket. No Japanese car or Euro car can match an Aussie car for engine performance and kit. The only thing missing from Holden and Ford is the perceived quality. If Toyota Australia can do it, why are Ford and Holden behind?