GTR Prices

[Birds]

GTR Prices

GTR prices are just insane. Everytime I jump on Carsales to check the offer prices, I'm pleased / mindboggled to see a few grand added to the average price or the cheapest example higher than I last saw it. Yes, they don't necessarily sell for what they are listed, but if that average keeps going up then so does the average of what they actually do sell for.

Especially R34s. I cannot believe people would pay 100k+ for a 20 year old Skyline. As much as I love these cars, they are still 10-40k cars to me. To maintain perspective I have to remember that people were / still are doing this with muscle cars from the 70s, which were once upon a time just old shitters and are now timeless classics. Guess I thought it would be at least another 10-15 years before 90s JDM fell into classic car territory and crazy appreciation in value.

My explanation? The Fast and the Furious generation now earning serious coin and having disposable income to relive childhood (demand), combined with the rarity of these vehicles (supply) - Australia and NZ did a good job of writing off many examples during the 90s and 00s). It's starting to make sense...

The questions for me now are: as a GTR owner who is keen on investment and would probably cave in to a good return, when do you get off the ride and sell? When will the bubble burst, if at all? Is it a slow passing fad? Are we at peak prices now or is there still a way to go, and will USA importing give later models another boost? Will it peak and trough like 70s muscle cars have done over the last 20 years? Could rarity turn into obscurity and one day leave you without a buying market (I own another rare car that is so obscure it's only worth about $1000)? Will scarcity of parts make them unaffordable to maintain and deter buyers one day (already happening for some)?

[Aussie_Delivered_R32_GTR]

Judging by this result, prices aren't coming down in a hurry.. This was a $15,000 car 15 years ago.

https://www.shannons.com.au/auctions/2017-shannons-sydney-winter-classic-auction/KAC296E6KRP4GZ81/

Bob.

[Anfanee]

Looking at trends of classic cars, these cars still have a way to go birds. They have really only just started to go up, realistically to hit the peak you need to own them for at least another 10 years.

[GTofuS-T]

The issue i see with this perceived investment opportunity is the whole lifecycle cost of owning a GT-R, I doubt many people (except maybe those high-end low mileage R34's) have bought one at 10,000 to 20,000 and let it sit, maintaining it enough to not deteriorate, and then selling it at a profit. INstead they've spent 10's of thousands of dollars upgrading it or nismo-ing it, rego, insurance, etc

And should we talk about inflation in this scenario? that 20,000 you spent in 2000 has inflated to 30,000 in 2016. so has the value of the GT-R eclipse all this?

But Birds you've made a lot of good points, especially about the obscure market, if it's being driven by FnF fan bois than the price will be capped and I can't see exotic collectors caring about too much but who knows, and like any market no one truely knows with certainty what's going to happen and if they did why would they share?

[Birds]

23 minutes ago, Anfanee said:

Looking at trends of classic cars, these cars still have a way to go birds. They have really only just started to go up, realistically to hit the peak you need to own them for at least another 10 years.

This is the part I find difficult to judge; whether it will follow other classic car trends or do its own thing. Because of how quickly these cars went from a depreciating asset into a collectible/investment and factors responsible. I always say with trends, the faster they come on the faster they go off...may not apply to collectible cars though.

Will everyone in the future universally appreciate 90s JDM like pretty much everyone today universally appreciates 70s muscle? Or is it just one generation of old kids that will see a decline one day as the cars are forgotten?

I also wonder about aftermarket support and parts in Australia. Being manufactured here, Australian muscle cars had and still do have quite a lot of parts floating around, specialists who work on them etc. As the cars become rarer, will workshops turn away from JDM focused business models? I already know some who are doing RWC now as their mainstay and work on imports is just a side for them because there isn't as much work as there used to be or it's not as profitable. A good argument against this would be American muscle cars which still fetch a lot of money here.

[Anfanee]

39 minutes ago, GTofuS-T said:

The issue i see with this perceived investment opportunity is the whole lifecycle cost of owning a GT-R, I doubt many people (except maybe those high-end low mileage R34's) have bought one at 10,000 to 20,000 and let it sit, maintaining it enough to not deteriorate, and then selling it at a profit. INstead they've spent 10's of thousands of dollars upgrading it or nismo-ing it, rego, insurance, etc

And should we talk about inflation in this scenario? that 20,000 you spent in 2000 has inflated to 30,000 in 2016. so has the value of the GT-R eclipse all this?

But Birds you've made a lot of good points, especially about the obscure market, if it's being driven by FnF fan bois than the price will be capped and I can't see exotic collectors caring about too much but who knows, and like any market no one truely knows with certainty what's going to happen and if they did why would they share?

No difference to any other classic car in history. All of them had huge $$ spent and all of them needed maintaining. 

24 minutes ago, Birds said:

This is the part I find difficult to judge; whether it will follow other classic car trends or do its own thing. Because of how quickly these cars went from a depreciating asset into a collectible/investment and factors responsible. I always say with trends, the faster they come on the faster they go off...may not apply to collectible cars though.

Will everyone in the future universally appreciate 90s JDM like pretty much everyone today universally appreciates 70s muscle? Or is it just one generation of old kids that will see a decline one day as the cars are forgotten?

I also wonder about aftermarket support and parts in Australia. Being manufactured here, Australian muscle cars had and still do have quite a lot of parts floating around, specialists who work on them etc. As the cars become rarer, will workshops turn away from JDM focused business models? I already know some who are doing RWC now as their mainstay and work on imports is just a side for them because there isn't as much work as there used to be or it's not as profitable. A good argument against this would be American muscle cars which still fetch a lot of money here.

Same as above, zero difference to any other classic. In fact i would argue it's better that they are not just Australia as the world will drive the market. 

 

Ill give you an interesting little statistic. Typically speaking classic cars end up between 20x and 30x their original purchase value. The R32 was $31,000 USD in 1989, about $40,000 AUD if we use todays conversion....

If we go ultra conservative and say it's 5x (which i will suspect it will go much higher) you are still looking at a $200,000 car. 

TL;DR these cars have a LONG way to go.

[GTofuS-T]

$40,000 AUD in 1989 is equivalent to $81,500 in 2016

and to put that in another context, in 1989 median house prices in sydney were $170k, so an R32 was 23% of a house, pretty significant, today, median house price is $1.15M, so that 81,500 is only 7% of a house. But they're not selling for that, they're are 35,000ish?

Ok so Sydney is ridiculous, let's have a look at Brisbane, 96000 in 1989 to 655,000 latest, that's 41% to 12%, same same.

But if want to stay in absolute dollar land to justify your investment, by all means, proceed  

[Birds]

 

21 minutes ago, Anfanee said:

No difference to any other classic car in history. All of them had huge $$ spent and all of them needed maintaining. 

Same as above, zero difference to any other classic. In fact i would argue it's better that they are not just Australia as the world will drive the market. 

 

Ill give you an interesting little statistic. Typically speaking classic cars end up between 20x and 30x their original purchase value. The R32 was $31,000 USD in 1989, about $40,000 AUD if we use todays conversion....

If we go ultra conservative and say it's 5x (which i will suspect it will go much higher) you are still looking at a $200,000 car. 

TL;DR these cars have a LONG way to go.

I'm expecting the USA to give 33/34 a bit of a boost when available. Could we end up selling these cars back to collectors in Japan?

Also think it's odd that whilst GTR prices have climbed so high, the GTS-Ts have stayed completely stagnant. I would have expected a little bit of a rise given they are now becoming rarer themselves. There's a point of contention - even base model classic cars fetch high prices. Will GTS-Ts go the same way in a decade or so perhaps, as some settle for these models when they can't afford a GTR? Will we see an insurgence of GTR badged GTS-Ts?

[Anfanee]

The figure i was quoting takes into account inflation in it. So when they peak (say 500,000), 500k won't be worth as much as it is now. So yes it is complicated. 

And you do realise it isn't a linear curve right? Housing market and cars are very different. For example:

in 2011 i bought my GTR for $12,000. It is now worth 4x that.

Now i don't know about you, but my houses have not gone up 4x since 2011... Well maybe Sydney lol

[Anfanee]

2 minutes ago, Birds said:

 

I'm expecting the USA to give 33/34 a bit of a boost when available. Could we end up selling these cars back to collectors in Japan?

Also think it's odd that whilst GTR prices have climbed so high, the GTS-Ts have stayed completely stagnant. I would have expected a little bit of a rise given they are now becoming rarer themselves. There's a point of contention - even base model classic cars fetch high prices. Will GTS-Ts go the same way in a decade or so perhaps, as some settle for these models when they can't afford a GTR? Will we see an insurgence of GTR badged GTS-Ts?

Of course they will follow suit. Look at the Falcons and how many replicas there are, and GTS-T's have gone up. They have more than doubled in price since i bought my GTR. you could get them for 6k around then, now they are all selling for an easy 12, hell looking on carsales atm the cheapest is 10k. 

[Anfanee]

This is literally nothing new, ask any car enthusiast over the age of 50 and it's exactly the same as every other rare, collectible car. 

[Birds]

Interesting - had not checked carsales for GTS-Ts in a while.

[Birds]

Just checked and more than a few still sub 10k? Talking 33s...

The mean sell offer certainly has gone up though. Lots in the teens now.

[GTofuS-T]

and heaps on FB sub $7k

[Anfanee]

1 hour ago, Birds said:

Just checked and more than a few still sub 10k? Talking 33s...

The mean sell offer certainly has gone up though. Lots in the teens now.

yeah i'll admit that i pay more attention to the 32. But the same principal applies, i'd say the 33 won't peak as high as the 32, which won't peak as high as the 34. 

Only time will tell how high they will go, but anyone with a GTR should be holding onto it. To the point i decided to withdraw from my mortgage to stop me from selling mine. 

[Aussie_Delivered_R32_GTR]

1 hour ago, Anfanee said:

This is literally nothing new, ask any car enthusiast over the age of 50 and it's exactly the same as every other rare, collectible car. 

Yep........ 100% Correct......

I can count numerous examples over the last 15 years were different makes and models escalated in value and owners could believe their luck.

The R32 GT-R is, and will alway be, a phenomenal car. Add the racing history and it was always going to be a classic.

Bob.

 

 

  

[21PC]

Another question would be at what age do you think these cars need to get to where people don't care about KM's etc but rather the condition the car is presently in? Similar to the muscle cars which only had 5 digit speedos and nobody is sure what the real kms are (especially after restorations).

[Anfanee]

Probs in another 10 years ish for that. Maybe less

[alex182]

Finally now in a decent full-time gig, and in a position to actually look for an R32 GTR, i'm shattered to see they're now asking 35k for a rusted out shitter when they used to be 20k for a good one 7 or 8 years ago.

God help anyone that's chasing a BNR34, now charging 70-80k for a non-Vspec when they used to be 40k.

It's partly the younger generation of car enthusiasts that grew up with these cars on the highest pedestal, I also think due to the floodgates in the US opening a few years ago for R32s, japan auctions went through the roof cause of some guy in the US with a skyline fetish would outbid you blindly by 10k- importers have to pay more, and domestically people look at the auction prices and jack up their own.

 

Scary cause I don't see these cars dropping any time soon, and i'm scared it's my last chance to buy my "forever car" before it gets unattainable...

[Birds]

Not just that, but 32s aren't getting any more reliable...if you're buying to enjoy driving I would do that now.