Interesting Skyline Market Price Analysis

[Tobz]

Hey All,

Thought some people may be interested in analysis conducted by tradeuniquecars.com.au. Looks like they do a yearly market analysis on classic cars, and have been tracking the value of used skylines.

Its seems 2018/2019 prices remained flat and now there has been a significant uptick in value for some skylines (non GTR)

2018 - https://www.tradeuniquecars.com.au/buyers-guide/1807/nissan-skyline-1990-99-–-2018-market-review

2019 - https://www.tradeuniquecars.com.au/buyers-guide/1906/nissan-skyline-1990-to-1999-2019-market-review

2020 - https://www.tradeuniquecars.com.au/buyers-guide/2006/nissan-skyline-1990-to-1999-2020-market-review

For example and R34 GT-T Coupe was

2018 - $20,285

2019 - $19,740

2020 - $28,100

 

GTR Price Guides are below:

2018 - https://www.tradeuniquecars.com.au/buyers-guide/1807/nissan-gtr-–-2018-market-review

2019 - https://www.tradeuniquecars.com.au/buyers-guide/1905/nissan-gtr-2019-market-review

2020 - https://www.tradeuniquecars.com.au/buyers-guide/2006/nissan-skyline-gtr-2020-market-review

An example here 

R32 GTR (import)

2018 - $40,850

2019 - $56,370

2020 - $78,055

 

Whats also interesting is the number of sales each year have not reduced, so supply has stayed fairly flat, its the demand that must have gone up? 

[GTSBoy]

21 minutes ago, Tobz said:

Whats also interesting is the number of sales each year have not reduced, so supply has stayed fairly flat, its the demand that must have gone up?

Well, yeah. There are not really any significant numbers coming in any more. Most of the Skylines that were going to be crashed into trees by flatbrims have been. The surviving cars are a smallish fraction of the total number that came in. That number has been about the same for the last 10 years, most likely. The number of cars for sale is usually a certain fraction of the total count, so that should remain the same too.

 

[GTSBoy]

You'll note that they don't show any (asking, not selling) pricing for, say, R32 GTSt 2drs in 2 out of those 3 reviews. That's likely because there are so few moving.

[Tobz]

Thats whats confusing me, the supply seems constant by the numbers being sold, yet prices are increasing. So there are more people who want a skyline now then there was 2 years ago? Or the quality of the cars being sold is getting higher maybe?

[Tobz]

Just now, GTSBoy said:

You'll note that they don't show any (asking, not selling) pricing for, say, R32 GTSt 2drs in 2 out of those 3 reviews. That's likely because there are so few moving.

i havent seen one for sale for a long time

[junkie]

I doubt the quality is getting higher, sellers are just asking for more cash and willing to wait longer

[GTSBoy]

35 minutes ago, Tobz said:

So there are more people who want a skyline now then there was 2 years ago?

Yes. Not necessarily here in Oz though. But the effect of the US market becoming a thing has driven local pricing to act as if there is truly a global market for these cars, which is only true to a certain extent. The shipping costs to get a bunky old R32 or 33 from here to the US can hardly be justified for the real or perceived values of the cars (either here, or there). For an R32 GTR, where, you're now talking well over $50k again, maybe more so. For an R34 GTR, the global market has to exist.

Now, purely based on the sheer number of really dumb questions asked on here in the last couple of years, evidence suggests that there are many many new and quite young owners of Skylines around. So people must have been selling them to all the young, dumb and full of cum brigade.

And as a further consideration, Supras that used to be $30k cars are now changing hands for upwards of $60k (real, I've seen it). And ditto for GTRs and FDs, so there is a degree of drag along for other cars from the era. People can't afford one of those halo models, but they can afford to buy one of the lesser cars, and that tiny increase in demand gets leveraged into quite startling increases in asking prices.

My car started at ~$20k 20 years ago. Proceeded to depreciate to about $7 a number of years back and has been steadily rising and is now very likely worth at least the original value, if not more. I was offered >$15k for it a few years ago, and that was before the recent apparent price spiral.

[Chris32]

Same can be said for spare parts, they've really dried up!

Given the cars were popular with the drifters, this accelerated the process of parts depletion

I remember people throwing away RB20's - they fetch good money now ?

[tridentt150v]

As an adjunct to this discussion..........the whole cars for sale section on SAU is D E A D.  Once you would see Skylines being sold like virgin slaves at a roman market...but these days you are lucky to see one for sale at all. It will soon get to the stage where people that have been racing/tracking their car will be reinstalling the interior and using/selling them because the perceived value is too high to push it into a wall trackside.

[GTSBoy]

I daily my car. It has 240k (legit) on it. I get told all the time that I should put it in the shed. My view is that it's only an R32, and while I love it and keep it as close to perfect as I can, it is only an old R32 and I would rather drive it (as a $20k or maybe even in the future a $30k car) every day than shed it, never drive it, and drive something else as a daily. It's a car - I want to own it because I want to drive it, even if that is just 50km a day to and from work. I reckon to some people who see me driving to work every morning and who "get it", I'm "that guy" in the R32. Not the anonymous twat in the Outlander/RAV4/Commonwhore/etc. I see a guy driving a neat yellow HG station wagon to work as a daily. I love to see that thing rolling instead of "appreciating" in a shed. Ditto for the various other guys doing the same thing. When I see a HG Monaro or an LJ Torrie out on a sunny Sunday, I just think "meh, garage queen".

A couple of weeks ago I pulled up in traffic, 3 cars abreast. A white R34 coupe in the left lane, a white 33 coupe in the middle and my white 32 in the right lane. That's a once in a decade thing right there. A few days later I was driving a Swift to work and at all times there were at least 2 other Swifts within sight. Pull up at the lights with any group of 40 other cars and at least 3 of them will be Swifts. /CSH

[Duncan]

1 hour ago, tridentt150v said:

As an adjunct to this discussion..........the whole cars for sale section on SAU is D E A D.  Once you would see Skylines being sold like virgin slaves at a roman market...but these days you are lucky to see one for sale at all. It will soon get to the stage where people that have been racing/tracking their car will be reinstalling the interior and using/selling them because the perceived value is too high to push it into a wall trackside.

Funny you should say that. We were literally today increasing the agreed value for the race car 3x because I can't imagine how I would reshell and fit out a R32 GTR for $25k these days...

Might just cut the cage out and buy some carpet....watch out carsales! Low KLM....

[Rusty Nuts]

2 hours ago, Chris32 said:

Same can be said for spare parts, they've really dried up!

 

Thats because I buy as much as possible, I have a shed full of parts, including 4 spare engines. Bwahaha.

[Tobz]

1 hour ago, Duncan said:

Funny you should say that. We were literally today increasing the agreed value for the race car 3x because I can't imagine how I would reshell and fit out a R32 GTR for $25k these days...

Might just cut the cage out and buy some carpet....watch out carsales! Low KLM....

Wait do you have insurance while you are on the track? Who is that through?

[Duncan]

Lumley. And no, its not covered while racing, but is covered for fire, theft, accidental damage, on trailer, driving between stages etc etc etc

[Tobz]

Aaa ok cool. I was going to say, only place I found who does insurance on track is Famous car insurance, and it’s only up to $10k and only for cams events and it’s $500 a race... so totally not worth it.

[Duncan]

It's well off topic, but on track insurance is available, the cost just reflects the risk. A condition of the Evo I leased for the Bathurst 6 hour  a few years back was write off insurance, and it cost about 25% of the car's value for the weekend.

[Bman1296]

What I want to know is if this price hike is due to covid craziness or not... Jobkeeper is giving people lots of confidence of cash, I can see that running out when jobkeeper does.

[GTSBoy]

18 hours ago, Bman1296 said:

What I want to know is if this price hike is due to covid craziness or not... Jobkeeper is giving people lots of confidence of cash, I can see that running out when jobkeeper does.

I'd suggest not. Or if it is, only a little. The upward spiral was well under way before end of last year, has been going on for a few years.

[Matty George]

Mate I’m pretty sure Jobkeeper won’t allow you to afford a GTR of any vintage.  I love my GTR and have toyed with selling it due to the prices. I firmly believe my 32 will be 100k in 5 years?

19 hours ago, Bman1296 said:

What I want to know is if this price hike is due to covid craziness or not... Jobkeeper is giving people lots of confidence of cash, I can see that running out when jobkeeper 

[Tobz]

35 minutes ago, Matty George said:

Mate I’m pretty sure Jobkeeper won’t allow you to afford a GTR of any vintage.  I love my GTR and have toyed with selling it due to the prices. I firmly believe my 32 will be 100k in 5 years?

Don’t sell, imagine all those people who sold their old classic muscle cars and now want them back