Do You Worry About Peak Oil?

[CEF11E]

I am really starting to think about it.

What really worries me is that we haven't found any new oil deposits of a decent size in the last 10 years and most of the western wells are approaching peak oil.

The wells in the middle east, we have no idea as no one has been allowed in there in the last 15 years to find out how much crude is still in the ground.

what do you guys know about it ?

[Morgs]

Its a worry Nic but I don't know enough about it to form a strong enough opinion. I've read a rather negative article recently which outlined the basic economic theory behind 'peak oil' and basically said that our modern society will crumble - oil wars will start - and those who can live as bare minimalists will survive....

Then again you hear two sides to every story - and alot of people supposedly in the know who are drilling and searching for oil say we have more than enough oil for the long term.

I suppose ultimately we all (or our future generations) need to hope that someone is planning at a higher level for when we need to rely on resources other that oil....

[Patto-]

As far as I know oil can always be made from shale, its just more expensive then drilling for it. So its not as if we're going to run out of oil, we are just going to run out of cheap oil. Which will cause economic problems.

But just about every developed and some developing countries are researching and developing ways to reduce the worlds reliance on oil. The main problem is rapidly developing countries like China and India, and also the US which is guzzling just as much as usual.

But we don't really have a good idea of how long the current oil reserves will last. Remember in the 1970s they thought the world would have run out of oil by now, but we haven't. So there are some doomsayers who will predict the worst, that WW3 will break out over oil, but really its anyones guess.

Although it does have some truth though. The major basis for the Iraq war was for the US to secure oil reserves for the future, as they didn't want them in the hands of Saddam Hussein. So you could argue that the growing shortage of oil has already caused at least one war.

[elbee111]

Yes

[madbung]

yep peak oil and quantum physics, i'm undecided which freaks me out more atm. I fully understand where the saying "ignorance is bliss" comes from. Sometimes it's better or atleast easier being ignorant regarding things that are totally out of your control.

Edited December 21, 2005 by madbung

[Silver-Arrowz]

I've read about the peak oil theory. It was back in the 60's that they surveyed the planet for all it's oil reserves. Many places couldn't be reached back then because it was too deep and other stuff, so as years went by they developed the technology to get to it. It's in the last 10 years that they haven't built an oil refinery because the cost is too much since oil companies already know how much oil is left.

As usual the US government was told of the potential crisis back in the 60's and just like the ozone hole, prompty ignored.

[CEF11E]

I am not that worried about running out of petrol as we can make synthetic fuel from any vegatable matter the demand will exceed supply by 100% though.

But I do worry about Plastic, Medical Supplies, Textiles and not to mention areoplanes will not fly without petrol and a new propulsion system like hydrogen jets are 20 years off.

we will never starve or see doomsday. but everything is going to be expensive. very expensive. and there will be ressesion world wide for a decade or so.

Not to mention 1 billion useless internal combustion engines.

I am never going to buy a petrol powered expensive car. Imagine buying that dream 911 Turbo for $100 grand and 2 years later having nothing to put in the tank.

[The Baron]

Okay - this one is pretty much in my alley as an environmental engineer.

Yes peak oil is upon us. It is very likely that world oil production will peak before the end of the decade, maybe it already has. Combine this with sky-rocketing demand from Asia and you know why we are paying $1.30 per litre

Things will only get worse BUT - we are the lucky ones. We are the top 1% of the world's population in terms of wealth etc so in Australia we will not run out of petrol for at least several decades. (Heck if we need to we can always gasify brown coal into hydrocarbons - an experimental plant already exists in the LaTrobe valley - not very eco-friendly but definitely possible)

So what will the future hold. First of all a transition to Hybrids over the next 10-15 years. Probably an increase in petrol prices well ahead of inflation with increased percentages of alternate fuels such as Bio-diesel, ethanol etc.

Then a gradual change to Hydrogen fuel cells and hybrids as soon as one of the energy companies decides to make a start in establishing a Hydrogen distribution network.

As for our Skylines?? Well the internal combustion engine will be around for at least the next 15-20 years as a primary propulsion source. However you can expect to pay significantly more for the fuel you put into the tank and this will probably be met with increased registration and compliance costs as future governments will try to wean us of these monsters - but by then the old Skylines will be mainly museum pieces. You will have your club plates and take them to track days, towed on a trailer behind your Fuel Cell Hybrid SUV.

By then there might even be an R36 GT-R, powered by 4 in wheel electric motors, in a body shape not limited by conventional motor layouts and setting new lap records on the Nurbuergring.

[PHATR32]

i think the terminators will kill us all by then. Have you guys looked at the latest robotoics, cpu, and A/I technology lately??

scarey shit, thats for sure.

steve

[siksII]

yes i worry a lot about it, especially after watching a couple of documentaries about it recently.

[noise]

its way over hyped.

Edited December 22, 2005 by noise

[siksII]

i would say its not hyped at all, and not nearly as much as it should be.

noise, why do you say its over hyped?

[noise]

http://www.teknoscape.com.au/forums/showth...hlight=peak+oil

was debated on this forum a while back.

oh and again here

http://www.teknoscape.com.au/forums/showth...hlight=peak+oil

get through the name calling and there are some good arguements for each side.

check it out

Edited December 22, 2005 by noise

[siksII]

ok thanks for the info, i will have a read although sometimes i find it hard to take information on forums seriously, especially on serious topics as its a lot of the time uneducated(on the topic) peoples opinions, and just rubbish they have heard from a friend etc.

you might be interested in watching two documentaries which are related, in case you have not heard of them:

the oil factor

the end of suburbia

[The Baron]

You can also try

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

[Keepleft]

You can also try

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Some Siberian oil wells depleted in the 60's are back on again, the clue is 'hydrocarbons'.

Oils aint fossil.

[MANWHOR3]

There are many problems in this world. Tthe governments are f**ked. Look at pollution. Fossil fuels is one of the smallest problems in this world.

There is poverty.

Food is f**ked. Any seafood you eat is filled with heavy metals which bioaccumulate.

humans keep rioting, and forming mobs. crime is a problem.

There are problems everywhere. I know that people say that everyone should do their part. I am doing my part. The world is still f**ked. So I prefer not to think about small things like oil.

[elbee111]

There are many problems in this world. Tthe governments are f**ked. Look at pollution. Fossil fuels is one of the smallest problems in this world.

There is poverty.

Food is f**ked. Any seafood you eat is filled with heavy metals which bioaccumulate.

humans keep rioting, and forming mobs. crime is a problem.

There are problems everywhere. I know that people say that everyone should do their part. I am doing my part. The world is still f**ked. So I prefer not to think about small things like oil.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A small thing like oil.

Before the planes don't fly and the roads don't run and you do not have any plastics etc etc etc there will be some heavy shit going down.

El Bee

[Patto-]

Like I said we are not going to run out, it will just be more expensive. Planes will still fly, we will still produce plastics etc.

Also I believe the market will provide a solution, it always does. Already car manufacturers are spending billions on fuel cell and other technology, they know where the world is heading in regards to oil, and it is in their interest to find a solution. The same will happen in other oil dependant industries as well.

So if you want to know if I worry about peak oil, the answer is no. Apart from my belief that the market will provide a solution, I also agree with madbung and others that there is no point worrying about something you have no control over.

Besides, if we didn't have oil shortages, we would probably continue to pollute the planet until we had no clean air to breathe anyway.

[predator]

bring it all down i say... life will go on..

evens out the balance .. what is money when its worthless and a mere bit of paper? Only those who've lived their life by possessions and living off others will have the most to lose.